Our previous analysis from two weeks, when CVI reached a level of 83, indicated the possibility of strong market swings in the near future — the analysis was based on CVI and was supported by BTC options data and comparison to past events. Since then, CVI has been reaching another historic peak of 93.2 last Tuesday and broke all previous records today, reaching 99.2.
Shortly after the previous CVI record on Tuesday, Bitcoin rallied to a new record high on Wednesday, smashing through its 2017 peak, as rising interest from professional investors and other factors helped prices recover from a deep trough. At this point COTI’s CEO indicated that BTC might withdraw soon, based on an internal analysis (that relied on CVI and other indicators).
Few hours later Bitcoin dropped to nearly $16,500 — its sharpest decline in 12 weeks, according to CoinDesk. During almost all this time CVI remained at high levels of above 80.
Last Sunday CVI began to increase dramatically towards its current record, followed by BTC price which broke its 3-year old record price yesterday, before dropping by almost 10% within one hour today.
Currently CVI is still very high at 98.6. Judging from the past few days, it seems that the market believes the BTC will remain volatile in the near future and additional price swings are on their way.
For more information and examples on CVI, please refer to the CVI announcement.